New study: Long on expectations, short on supply: Regional lithium imbalances and the effects of trade allocations by China, the EU, and the USA

André Månberger is a Senior lecturer at Environmental and Energy Systems Studies at Lund University and the Director for the Mistra Mineral Governance Programme.

A new study co-authored by Mistra Mineral Governance Director, André Månberger, explores lithium supply-demand conflicts in the three primary markets: USA, China and Europe. It shows that while domestic lithium production in China, Europe, and the USA—especially in Europe, where production may grow 10-fold between 2025 and 2030—will increase, it will not fully meet demand. The regions differ in their paths to self-sufficiency: China may reduce import reliance with lower battery capacity, the USA could ease shortages under a high-supply scenario, and Europe faces the largest deficit. Maximizing imports could bring Europe closer to balance than the USA, but interregional trade complicates this. Governance is urgently needed to prevent competition for scarce resources from hindering low-carbon technology adoption.

Background

Electric vehicles (EVs) are tied to seven of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and are vital to global sustainable development efforts. China, Europe, and the USA have ambitious EV plans, yet EVs depend heavily on lithium, raising concerns about supply allocation among regions amid potential global shortages.

About the study

This study evaluates lithium supply-demand conflicts in the three primary EV markets by 2030 across 16 scenarios, factoring in battery capacity, policy commitments, and domestic production. Despite significant growth in domestic lithium production, major EV markets cannot achieve self-sufficiency. Strategies to address shortages include reducing lithium content, increasing domestic supply, using smaller EV batteries, promoting shared/public EV transport, and importing lithium. Relying on imports alone is insufficient and risks intensifying regional competition. To meet demand, we emphasize improving resource efficiency alongside maximizing lithium extraction.

Read the full study at cell.com: Long on expectations, short on supply: Regional lithium imbalances and the effects of trade allocations by China, the EU, and the USA. It is published in Cell Reports Sustainability. It is authored by Qifan Xia, André Månberger, and Debin Du.